I've been reluctant to comment on this poll until I saw some of the methodology, but news organizations across the country are reporting it. This from
Roll Call:A new poll conducted for the Club for Growth showed Sen. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) and his primary challenger, state Treasurer Richard Mourdock, in a statistical dead heat.
Mourdock had a small advantage over Lugar, 34 percent to 32 percent, in the Basswood Research poll released Tuesday. But Mourdock’s 2-point lead is within the poll’s 4.4-point margin of error.
The conservative, anti-tax organization has not endorsed Mourdock, but the Club for Growth President Chris Chocola has frequently criticized Lugar’s record. Earlier this month, the club sponsored television advertisements blasting Lugar across Indiana.
“An incumbent who sits at 32 percent in his own party’s primary, and trails a much less known challenger, is in a world of trouble,” Chocola, a former Indiana Congressman, said in a statement. “Senator Lugar is a very decent man, but it’s clear from the poll that after 35 years, Hoosier Republicans are eager for a more conservative alternative.”
About one-third of those polled, 34 percent, said they were undecided about the GOP Senate primary field.
I have previously said I am not 100% sure Lugar will go to the post in 2012. I think there is a decent chance that he will choose to retire gracefully than risk electoral defeat. Of course, at Lugar's age there is an increased chance that health complications may suddenly put him on the sidelines.
