Rep. Michele Bachmann Wins Iowa Straw Poll With Rep. Ron Paul a Narrow Second; Expect GOP Nomination Contest to Narrow to Four Top Candidates

CNN reports on the recent Iowa straw poll:

Rep. Michele Bachmann

After a busy weekend in Iowa and South Carolina, the Republican presidential race moves forward with what looks to be a three-way contest among upstart Michele Bachmann, newcomer Rick Perry and perceived front-runner Mitt Romney.

Bachmann, a U.S. House member from Minnesota, seeks momentum after winning the Iowa GOP straw poll — a preliminary contest that knocked former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty out of the race after a disappointing third-place finish.

Gov. Rick Perry

Meanwhile, the Republican race got a new and potentially formidable candidate in Perry, the Texas governor who announced his bid Saturday before a conservative group in South Carolina.

At some point, both Bachmann and Perry figure to go after Romney, whose campaign war chest make him the front-runner at this point.

"We've got a three-person race now," said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of a non-partisan political report. "Romney, Perry and Bachmann."

The CNN story fails to mention that Bachmann only narrowly defeated Texas Congressman and libertarian favorite Ron Paul, 4823 (29%) to 4671 (28%).  Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty finished a distant third and shortly thereafter ended his presidential campaign.  Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and new entry to the race, Texas Governor Rick Perry, did not actively participate in the Iowa straw poll.


Rep. Ron Paul

I disagree with Rothenberg on one point.  The number of libertarian-leaning Republicans, people who do not in particular like the drug war, loss of civil liberties and military intervention, has increased markedly over the past decade.  Paul's popularity reflects that growing GOP libertarianism.  While at one time I think analysts could rightly see Paul as a marginal candidate, that's no longer the case.

Former Gov. Mitt Romney

I have long said it would be a non-Romney candidate at the end squared off against Romney, and the non-Romney candidate would win the nomination.  I have changed my mind.  With the entry of Perry in the race, I'm not sure Romney will be one of the two left at the end. Social conservatives don't like Romney and they dominate much of the GOP nomination process.  Romney' ace card though was always economic issues, but on that front, Perry can more than match Romney's record without the baggage of Romney's support for government run health care and his advocacy of government taking steps to address supposed man-made global warming.

Bachmann, a tea party favorite, will probably fall short when it comes to addressing the economic issues which will undoubtedly dominate the 2012 election.  While Ron Paul's libertarian niche in the GOP continues to grow, traditional Republicans still dominate.  I expect that, given Paul's enthusiastic young supporters, the congressman may stay in the campaign all the way to the convention.   I expect Bachmann might actually edge out Romney when it comes to total delegates won and Romney may be out of the race before she is.

I'd put my money on Texas Governor Rick Perry accepting the GOP nomination at the 2012 convention.  Perry's economic message resonates as the country continues to be plagued with high unemployment and the prospect of a double dip recession.  Perry also is acceptable to social conservatives and is liked by many tea party types.   Perry's weaknesses in terms of nomination issues is that he is more of a moderate on immigration (understandable given the number of Mexican-Americans living in Texas) and his rhetoric suggests he would be more of an interventionist on foreign policy than many increasingly isolationist-leaning Republicans would like.

Bottom line, Perry is a strong, forceful speaker who hits most issues that resonate with most Republicans and most Americans. With his being able to point to the economic success of Texas during these turbulent times, I expect Perry will be a very formidable candidate in the difficult contest to dney President Obama a second term.