Over at Indy Democrat, blogger Jon Easter speculates that the issues raised by the Republicans that have the Democrats all riled up, could spill over into the 2011 Indianapolis municipal elections.
You betcha.
A physics principle is that for every action, you have an equal and opposite reaction. It's the same thing in politics. Republicans win big in 2010 and push their agenda. That riles up the Democrats' constituency and they make gains in 2011 and quite possibly 2012.
Opinion polls do not measure the intensity of one's views. Even if a poll says an issue is 80% to 20%, it doesn't mean that the 80% side wins in the democratic process. There is a term in political science called a "voting issue." A voting issue is an issue that affects the way you vote. In the aforementioned example, it may a voting issue to the 20% while not to the 80%.
What is a "voting issue" can also change with election cycles. For example, for years abortion has been a voting issue for pro-life voters a lot more than it has been for pro-choice voters. That's because the pro-choice side has gotten what they wanted and began voting on other issues. Once pro-lifers start winning battles in the legislature, you'll see more pro-choice voters make abortion a voting issue and that will filter down to political races and how elected officials react. Action - Reaction.
Democratic voters will be highly motivated this election year. They will be looking for races to express their anger and frustration. The one here in the big city is the Indianapolis Mayor and Council races. I'm predicting that Mayor Ballard loses by more than 10% and that Democrats win 19 of the 29 seats up for grabs. (The D's now have 13.) It's quite possible the Democratic tide will be worse than that.
I remember a certain Democratic blogger roundly mocking me when I disputed his claim that the Democrats would make gains in the 2010 elections. I pointed out that wasn't the history...that the out party almost always makes big gains in the mid-term election of a new president's first term. I predicted the Republicans would make strong gains. Haven't heard from that blogger in awhile...
